Disclaimer: The knowledge introduced doesn’t represent monetary, funding, buying and selling, or different sorts of recommendation and is solely the author’s opinion
- BTC’s market construction on the entire appeared fairly bearish
- A faux breakout to the upside could possibly be adopted by a deep plunge towards $14K
In anticipation of the discharge of the FOMC minutes on 23 November, BTC regained the $16K degree and was up by 5%. It was buying and selling at $16.5K at press time, boosting the remainder of the altcoin market.
An analogous worth rally was seen earlier than the FOMC assembly and subsequent 75-point charge hike between 2 and three November. However BTC declined afterward, coinciding with the FTX implosion.
Learn Bitcoin’s [BTC] price prediction 2023-2024
If historical past repeats itself, the present worth rally could possibly be nipped within the bud by the continued FUD surrounding Genesis’ chapter. That will ship BTC plummeting towards the $14,000 mark in the long term.
Breakout from a descending triangle: Will the bears achieve the higher hand?
BTC traded between $18.5K and $24K throughout mid-July and mid-November. The midpoint of this vary was $21.5K. Nevertheless, since mid-September, BTC has been buying and selling on the decrease aspect of the vary and at last broke by the assist of the vary on 9 November.
BTC discovered new assist on the 0% Fib degree at $15.5K and examined it thrice. The extra occasions assist or resistance is examined, the extra seemingly it’s to be damaged. On the time of writing, BTC was within the state of a worth restoration.
BTC’s worth motion over the previous two weeks shaped a descending triangle (white strains) that was half of a bigger bearish pennant with a flagpole (blue line).
The present bearish triangle was additionally much like two earlier triangle chart patterns in July and October. In each instances, a false breakout to the upside was adopted by a worth drop. If historical past repeats itself, BTC might head decrease after breaking by the present $15.5K assist with $14K as potential new assist.
The bearish bias was additionally supported by the Relative Energy Index (RSI), which stood at 39. This confirmed that the bears nonetheless had leverage at press time. The On-balance Quantity (OBV) was additionally on a decline since September. This confirmed that the market construction on the day by day chart nonetheless favored the sellers.
Nevertheless, a candlestick shut on the day by day chart above the 23.6% Fib degree ($16.9K) would invalidate the bearish bias. Thus, affirmation of the breakout to the upside might coincide with a potential Transferring Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing. This could possibly be a purchase sign for buyers.
Unfavorable sentiment in BTC and worth/quantity divergence: Imminent worth reversal?
Some on-chain metrics pointed in direction of a bearish construction of BTC. In response to Santiment, BTC’s total weighted sentiment additional fell into adverse territory, indicating a bearish outlook.
As well as, the latest worth rally has been accompanied by a decline in buying and selling quantity. This represented a price-volume divergence. Moreover, this additionally indicated a weakening shopping for strain, which might undermine a notable rally. Due to this fact, the bulls could possibly be overwhelmed, and BTC might see a deeper plunge within the coming days or even weeks.
BTC buyers ought to comply with the FOMC minutes and the impression of Genesis’ alleged chapter available on the market to gauge sentiment and get a greater perspective on the potential worth path.