Final week, the “WOW” got here from the US jobs report.
Recall the US added 517K new jobs, a lot greater than the 185K estimate.
In the present day, “WOW II” got here by way of the Canada jobs report which added 150K. That achieve got here after a pointy rise of 69K final month which was revised decrease from 104K beforehand reported, however nonetheless fairly robust. The 2 month achieve of 219K is kind of spectacular.
To place the achieve in perspective, the Canada inhabitants is 38.5M. The US inhabitants is 332M (roughly) or between 9 and 10 occasions bigger. The US job add was 517K vs 150K for Canada. You are able to do the maths. 69K is strong. 150K at this level of the submit pandemic time interval could be very robust. Pre-pandemic, the excessive water marks for job progress going again to early 2000s was about 108K.
The unemployment fee at 5% was solely bettered by 4.9% in Might and June of final 12 months when it reached 4.9% (going again to 2006).
The info propelled the CAD to the highest of the standings for the strongest to the weakest. The GBP and the EUR are the weakest.
The USD was marginally greater in the present day with positive aspects vs the EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CHF. The greenback fell vs the CAD and marginally vs the JPY.
The USD was a lot decrease vs the JPY at the beginning of the buying and selling day as merchants reacted to the experiences that Masayoshi Amamiya – a dove – turned down the potential nomination.
The nominee – to be formally nominated subsequent week – will likely be tutorial Kazuo Ueda. Ueda and economist educated at MIT, was a former board member and anticipated to nonetheless be supportive of ultraloose BOJ coverage. He’s simply much less identified vs Amamiya.
So how did the greenback carry out this week, one week after the “WOW I” US jobs report? Recall, the US was the strongest foreign money on the finish of the week final week.
Versus the foremost currencies, the USD was blended this week with positive aspects vs the EUR, JPY, AUD and NZD and declines vs the CHF and CAD. The inexperienced again was unchanged vs the GBP this week :
- Up 1.08 vs the EUR
- Up 0.19% vs the JPY
- Unchanged vs the GBP
- Down -0.22% vs the CHF
- Down -0.41% vs the CAD
- Up 0.04% vs the AUD
- Up 0.25% vs the NZD
US shares this week have been decrease with the Nasdaq falling for the primary time in 5 weeks:
- Dow fell -0.17%
- S&P fell -1.11%
- Nasdaq fell -2.41%
- Russell 2000 fell -3.36%.
The S&P index closed the week again under the December highs close to 4100 at 4090 tilting the bias slightly extra to the draw back.
Within the US debt market this week, yields continued their strikes to the upside:
- 2 12 months yield up 24 foundation factors to 4.525%
- 5 12 months yield up 27 foundation factors to three.93%
- 10 12 months yield up 22.5 foundation factors to three.745%
- 30 12 months yield up 22 foundation factors to three.83%.
In different markets:
- Crude oil moved up near $7 or 8.75% helped by China reopening, US financial system not going right into a recession and Russia saying 5% manufacturing cuts in retaliation for western sanctions.
- Gold is ending the week just about unchanged on the day.
- Bitcoin final Friday closed at $23434. The present value is at $21577 as threat off sentiment pushed the value again down. The excessive on the rebound off the current low reached as much as $24258 on February 2.
This weekend is the Tremendous Bowl in my dwelling city of Phoenix. My thoughts says Eagles, however bought a hunch will probably be the Chiefs.
As well as, the Phoenix Open golf match (The Biggest Present on Grass) with SOLD OUT crowds of 300,000 on Friday and Saturday (the Sunday crowd is historically decrease as hangovers and the Tremendous Bowl ease the numbers a bit) will happen simply 5 miles from our home and pack eating places and bars every night. The match is dwelling to the well-known sixteenth Stadium Gap the place “QUIET PLEASE” just isn’t a part of the equation.
That is what they construct yearly, after which take down after the match.
Recession? What recession?
Have a SUPER weekend!