USDCAD moves higher. Macklem speaks later today.

Later at present, the BOC’s Macklem will probably be talking (at 12:45 PM ET). On the BOC assembly on January 25, the central raised charges by 25 foundation factors and introduced a “conditional pause” in hikes. The market will probably be listening for additional ideas on charges/financial system.

Trying on the hourly chart, the worth excessive yesterday reached up towards the 50% midpoint of the transfer down from the 2023 excessive (from January 3). That stage is available in at 1.34729. The excessive worth yesterday prolonged as much as 1.34748 (simply above that fifty% midpoint stage) earlier than rotating again to the draw back and shutting at 1.3445.

After a rotation decrease within the Asian session which noticed the worth transfer down beneath the damaged 38.2% retracement at 1.3423 to a session low of 1.3400 (a pleasant spherical quantity), the worth chopped up and down into the early European session, with resistance coming between a swing space between 1.3434 and 1.3445 (see crimson numbered circles). The final hour has seen a rotation above that swing space to the brand new excessive for the day at 1.34634.

On the highest facet, the 50% retracement stays a key goal to get to and thru. Not solely did the worth of the USDCAD stall the rise throughout yesterday’s commerce round that stage, however the pair additionally stalled the rise final week close to the extent. Get above that stage opens the door for additional upside momentum with the 1.3497 (name it 1.3500) as a subsequent goal adopted by a swing space between 1.3512 and 1.3526. The 100 day transferring averages at 1.35317.

What would spoil a possible continuation of the transfer to the upside?

Transfer again beneath the 1.3434 – 1.3445 space would disappoint, the patrons with a transfer beneath the 1.3423 stage one other indication that the shopping for momentum is simply not there.